8th January 2023:
If you're involved in the climate activism scene on the UK then it can't have escaped your notice that Extinction Rebellion have recently announced a change in strategy from disruptive direct action to just direct action.
Okay, I think it's fair to say that for most people, that doesn't really sound like much of a change in strategy at all. Disrupting the everyday workings of the system is one form of direct action, and now they are switching the form their direct action takes to more traditional targets, and away from disrupting the general public. So for most people that probably doesn't sound like much of a change, but actually, when you think about it, it is.
Back in late 2017 and early 2018 I had vaguely heard of Extinction Rebellion. I had dismissed it in my mind as a middle class protest movement that wasn't going to amount to anything and didn't really pay any attention to it, until sometime in early 2018 when a friend phone me up and asked me if I had heard what was happening in London? Nonchalantly I replied no, what's going on? whilst chewing on my toast. She replied: 1,000 people have been arrested on a mass climate action!! At this point the toast in my mouth was spewed out as my mind entered into a state of unbelief: 1,000 people? Oh Shit! It was totally mind blowing. I certainly stood up and took notice then, and as soon as the next meeting took place in Manchester, I attended, along with over 200 other people. I hadn't seen that kind of attendance at a climate action planning meeting since... well, never, I've never seen that kind of attendance at a climate action planning meeting. I think it's fair to say that those kind of numbers are truly remarkable, like the 1,000 people getting arrested.
The following year in 2019 over 1,100 people were arrested during the October London rebellion, infamous due to the spate of train actions. It was also infamous because the police this time were prepared, and although for the first few days it was touch and go who would come out on top, after that it was clear that the police had won, and had the situation contained. The number of arrests plummeted, the rebellion was confined to one site, and any semblance of a real rebellion was over. There was definitely a sense of defeat in the air. The same tactics had been applied without any change, and this time the number of sites to occupy had increased from a few to a dozen, without any corresponding increase in numbers. It was, in my mind, a failure of strategy, a really basic failure of strategy. XR were counting on more and more people getting arrested, but that didn't happen, there was only a very mild 10% increase, and the met police had had a whole year to study what happened in 2018 and to develop their counter measures.
The whole movement was at a very low ebb, morale was hit, and it was clear that what was needed was a quick response to boost morale, or the whole movement would lose momentum and dwindle, or carry on doing the same thing over and over without generating any more impetus or numbers.
Then Covid happened, and everything was shut down.
Since the lockdown lifted, however, it has been clear that the movement is not the same as it was, that numbers aren't growing, that the heyday of the movement might be in the past, and that although it is still a force to be reckoned with, it doesn't have anything new up its sleeve. In 2021 and 2022 XR continued with the same tactic of mass disruption, but the arrest numbers had dropped significantly. The whole aim of the strategy was for the arrest numbers to balloon, and in that way for the system to be brought to a halt and a genuine rebellion of civil disruption and disobedience to initiate. If that wasn't going to happen, then the whole strategy needed to be rethought.
Of course, organising mass disruptive actions in London, occupying spaces, taking direct action against fossil fuel polluters, is in and of itself worthwhile, regardless of whether it turns into a genuine rebellion or not. The spaces and conversation that XR generates through these kinds of actions are in my mind incredibly valuable and worthwhile. But of course, if they aren't going to generate a rebellion, and if that is the aim of the movement, then everything has to be questioned.
It's now 2023, and this is the backdrop for the recent announcement of XR of a change in strategy, away from the spectacular mass arrest actions that brought it national attention but which have now dwindled in efficacy, and towards more traditional styles of civil disobedience. The new campaign aims to mobilise 100,000 people to surround the Houses of Parliament this coming April, for as long as they can, in order to... well, I don't think there is any clear plan, I think mainly it's just a case of throwing the die and seeing what happens. By taking away the whole focus on disruption and being arrested, the group aims to make a more inclusive space and thereby hopes to generate a larger response. In other words, they are still trying to foment a rebellion, but have put on pause the old mass disruption tactic for a while in order to try something else, in the hope that it can revitalise the movement and bring in more numbers and, most importantly, bring back the sense of hope that comes from being involved in a growing movement and not a dwindling one.
In that aim I support the organisers in what they are trying to do. I wouldn't want to see an end to the tactic of mass disruption, but I agree that it is worthwhile putting it on hold and trying something else to see if the movement can be revitalised. I think the figure of 100,000 people is not going to be reached, and the number is more likely to be around 10 or 20,000, but I hope I am wrong. The movement is certainly going all out to promote the event and reach as many people as it can, but it doesn't seem to have its finger on the pulse. Here in Swansea, we are supposed to mobilise 400 people to bring to London, but I can tell you, if they manage to fill a single coach I will be impressed. More likely it will be a minibus or a handful of people getting the train. XR are simply not in a position to pull off a mobilisation like that, not without the support of all the other climate NGOs in the UK, and I'm not aware it has even discussed this idea with them to get them on board and mobilise their supporters, and even if it had done I'm still not sure there is the appetite or energy for such a mobilisation at this time.
So yes, I agree XR as a movement needs revitalising, but trying to mobilise beyond the capacity of the group to do so is a big mistake. I truly hope i am proved wrong, and I hope XR does get 100,000 people to surround the Houses of Parliament for a week or more. That would be a genuine rebellion, and a game changer. I was wrong about 2018, so I could also be wrong here. But the fact is that those kind of responses to a call out are rare, and you can't continue organising on the hope that your call out will result in an unexpected avalanche of numbers. You have to organise based on the work you have done and the likelihood of what to expect. It's fine to hope for more, but gambling the future of the whole movement on 100,000 people turning up is not in my view an intelligent strategy. You really risk demoralising everyone when only a few thousand turn up, and the whole sense then is one of failure, and that can take years to repair. The movement still hasn't really gotten over the defeat of 2019. It doesn't need a new 'pie in the sky' figure that it is very unlikely to get anywhere near achieving, it needs to get real.
So with that in mind, I wanted to suggest a few options that are in my mind a much better route to revitalising the movement, generating links with other grassroots groups, keeping the movement relevant, and which can put it in a position a year or two down the line to generate the kinds of numbers that may actually bring about a systemic shift.
I spoke in a previous blog (XR & the Social Body) about the abject failure of XR to address the social body, and the urgent need for it to do so if it is going to have any hope of generating a real rebellion. There is at present a massive energy crisis, and people at the bottom end of society are really, really struggling to cope with the cost of living as a result not only of inflation, but the massive hike in energy prices. It is absolutely paramount that XR takes a really, really strong stand on this issue, and puts it to the top of their national campaign agenda as ISSUE NUMBER 1. It has to defend the social body, and fight for and give voice to the oppressed. It must use its platform to do so if it is ever going to be able to generate any kind of strong sympathetic reaction in the mass of the population, whose issues it has for the last few years paid only an insulting lip service to, amounting to nothing more than a face saving exercise.
XR needs to join the Don't Pay campaign. It is in a powerful position to really bolster this campaign and bring it into the national media attention, and to highlight its links with climate change and the fossil fuel industry, and the bosses of corporate capitalism, and the underlying social injustice issues. It doesn't seem to have the vision to see that it has been handed an absolute gem of a campaign here, and a precious opportunity to galvanise a much greater mass of people, and to be seen in a very different light, not just as a climate group, but as a group that stands up for the poor, for the rights of the masses, and takes a stand with them, getting arrested in mass numbers, fighting for them, and using its platform to promote the issues to a wider audience. This is where the rebellion can get real, this is where the numbers can really start to mushroom, this is where a greater number and diversity of grassroots groups can get involved, and this is where XR can start to be respected by a much wider mass of the public as a group that will fight for them. You get XR doing that, and a few years down the line you are going to be in a position to make a call out for 100,000 people and actually produce the goods, because so many more people will admire what the group stands for, and recognise the work it has done for the social body, and recognise it as more than just a direct action lobby group, but actually as a real group, a group of the people and for the people.
Continuing on the theme of addressing the social body and the injustices experienced by the mass of the working class population, XR needs to take strong solidarity actions with the mass of strikes that are now taking place, and that are going to continue growing. Why don't they do an action at the Department of Transport during the train strikes, to highlight not only the social injustice, but also the need for massive investment in our mass public transport infrastructure in order to combat climate change? Whatever it decides to do, it needs to make acting in solidarity with the striking workers ISSUE NUMBER 2. It needs to link the climate crisis with the energy bills and the strikes, in order to bring on board a greater number of people. At present, the issue of climate change feels totally divorced from the reality of people's day to day lives. XR can change that, and reorient itself to fight for the social body on these issues, with a platform of addressing them AND climate change. Those are the tactics of a real rebellion. You get XR doing that and supporting Don't Pay, then again, a few years down the line, it is in a position to mobilise an awful lot more people than it is now. What's more, workers and people in social housing struggling with bills will turn to them as a group who stands up for them, and pay attention to what they have to say. Suddenly they are respected by the masses, whereas at present they are considered more of a single-issue-middle-class-group that doesn't have much to do with the ordinary mass of people.
The last thing I want to suggest XR should mount as a national direct action campaign issue, ISSUE NUMBER 3, is that of freeing Julian Assange. XR took multiple actions in 2021 against the press, and one of its most popular slogans is TELL THE TRUTH. Julian Assange and Wikileaks has probably done more than any other organisation to tell the truth, to 'spill the beans' on the lies and deception that our governments and corporations feed us every day. It has probably done more than any other group to raise the consciousness of this planet, and to change the status quo. But what have XR done to help the Free Julian Assange campaign? If XR really believe in telling the truth, then why haven't they made this one of their top campaign issues, and kept it that way, year after year, in order to highlight the lies that we are told, and what happens when somebody actually has the courage to really tell the truth? This is where the fight for the truth is taking place right now, in the battle to free Julian Assange from the totalitarian psychopaths in power that have imprisoned him in solitary confinement for years. We all grew as individuals as a result of Julian Assange and Wikileaks, and absorbed the truth that came out, and our worldview changed and matured. We owe it to him to put our bodies on the line, and we owe it to ourselves not to allow these extremists to steal from among us our own leaders and fighters. XR has the power to make a massive difference in this campaign, a campaign that is international in its scope. This is the kind of campaign that will continue to raise the profile of XR, ensure that it maintains a high level of respect in the eyes of the public and in the eyes of all civil and grassroots movements. We are nothing without SOLIDARITY, our struggles will fail. It will be a massive failure of every single one of us if we allow Julian Assange to be extradited by the right-wing US and UK military-industrial regimes. We will have failed as a movement. That is how critical this issue is.
I would love to see XR take on these issues. That would revitalise XR and massively raise its credibility. That would make XR much more relevant. That would make XR much more of a national and international political force for the greater good. That would mature XR as a movement, and that would position XR to be able to make much bigger and more rebellious actions in future. That is the XR that the world needs to see. The 100 days campaign isn't. That is far off the pulse of where XR needs to be. It is a lame call out with no real teeth and That isn't likely to result in anything except a defeated movement. XR needs to get real, and it needs to get contemporary, and it needs to build loads of bridges and raise its integrity levels far beyond what it has managed to date. These campaigns I have suggested will do that, the 100 days campaign will not.
I rest my case.